Wednesday, 14 April 2021
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Trump makes the fault lines move, reshaping US politics

Summary: We’re in the Crazy Years, as predicted long ago by Robert Heinlein. I search the political fringes,seeking outsiders’ perspectives and useful insights. Here is one such, a bold prediction from the Right. Judge it as a big-picture prediction, not with the obsessive focus of journalists on the next tick of the news. Whether or not you agree with his forecast, he points to fault lines in the American political system. History shows that people assume such fault lines will never shake. But sometimes they do, and the world changes. I do not know if this forecast is correct. But I believe that our current political factions are unstable; change is inevitable.

“We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.”
— Attributed to Roy Charles Amara as paraphrased by Robert X. Cringely.

Crossing the Chasm
From Geoffrey Moore’s Crossing the Chasm.

Trump Crosses the Black Chasm, Ends Democrats.

By Tom Luongo at his website, Gold Goats ‘n Guns.
20 August 2018. Reposted with his generous permission.

Do you remember the Zune? I barely do. Do you remember the iPod? Silly question. The iPod changed everything. While the Zune was technically superior in nearly every way to the iPod, the iPod became a phenomenon. Why? Because Apple focused on how the iPod made your life better.

In marketing there is something called “The Chasm.” It’s an idea put forth by Geoffrey Moore in the early 90’s. Getting 16% market share is easy. There are nearly always one in six people who are willing to adopt the new or different thing. But, to become a social phenomenon that ‘new thing’ has to ‘cross the chasm’ by shifting the marketing message from its newness superiority to why this ‘new thing’ will make your life better.

The message has to appeal to people’s sense of shared experience and community.  And if that shift is successful your product or message will ‘cross the chasm’ and begin to see mass adoption. For that shift to win out conditions have to be right and the message aligned perfectly with it. If you do your new thing will explode in the public consciousness literally overnight.

Look at how quickly Jordan Peterson has blown up. Conditions were right for people to receive his message. And all it took was for the right moment him to stand up to a virulent ideologue like Kathy Newman of the BBC to become a hero to millions {video of the interview here}.

The First Black President.

So, what does all this 16% Chasm stuff have to do with Donald Trump? After all, he crossed the chasm and won the presidency. But the chasm Trump needed to cross was a demographic one. Minorities, specifically black voters. And because he did, nothing about our electoral politics will ever be the same. Rasmussen Reports released a bombshell report on Friday stating that Trump’s support among black voters is now a whopping 36%. This versus 19% a year ago.

Editor’s note: The Rasmussen report is gated. See the CNN article about itOther polls show increased support for Trump among African Americans (even CNN), but by smaller amounts. An NAACP poll released on Aug. 7 found that the GOP’s approval rating among Black voters was 13% (9% undecided).

Now, Rasmussen skews Republican in his sampling like Gallup skews Democrat, so lop 3-5% off both of those numbers, the margin of error. Go back to Trump’s polling with black voters just a few months ago and you’ll see numbers in the 17% range. Today 36%. That, my friends, is crossing the chasm in a big way.

And it’s typical. Italy’s Northern League ‘crossed the chasm’ in January and doubled support in six months. {See this status report.}

So, now the question is what caused this?  What changed? In my mind it was Kanye West. Yes, {what Scott Adams calls} Kanye West’s “Seven Words that Changed Everything” made it acceptable for millions of black voters to see Trump differently.

Conditions were ripe. The Democrats were going to places unacceptable to most people – insane, intersectionalism, calling everyone a racist, extreme gun control, censorship, etc.

It didn’t hurt that things have improved quickly under Trump for Black Americans. We’ve all seen the statistics – lowest unemployment in decades, rising wages {Ed: but not for Blacks}, etc. But, that’s not “crossing the chasm” material. What is is controlling immigration, the crackdown on drug trafficking and tax reform. Then Kanye met with Trump at the White House and Kanye’s new album sold like bottles of water in the middle of the desert. And people thirsting for a little truth got a red-pill to go along with that bottle.

Ed. note: see more from Kanye West about Trump here and here.

The reaction to Kanye was predictable and offensive to many people.

The End of Race-Baiting.

I live in rural North Florida among hard-working, family oriented, church-going black families and I can tell you none of these people voted for Hillary.These people aren’t looking for handouts, they are looking for someone to get out of their way. And they have even less patience for the insane spectacle the Democrats are putting on about Trump’s supposed foibles than the white people who voted for him.

Kanye’s support of Trump was the Battle of the Bulge in the Culture War with Marxism.  He punctured all their myths.  He rubbed their noses in their smugness. And he led black people by example. While the race-baiters shamed themselves and their brethren.

I said back in June when it happened to my newsletter subscribers it would permanently fracture the fragile coalition of the Democratic Party. And it has. Trump stole the Union vote back in 2016, now he’s stealing the minorities. By the time the mid-terms are over, he’ll have solidified the rest of the centrists. This will leave the Democrats as a permanent underclass in U.S. electoral politics for the next generation.

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This is why Omarosa is out there making a fool of herself this week. {See here, here, and here.} She was activated to staunch the bleeding. It’s why they doubled down on “Trump is a Traitor” post-Helsinki because they knew these poll numbers were shifting quickly against them. {See examples here and here.}

A former CIA Director is trying to manufacture outrage in a cynical American electorate over Trump removing his security clearance! That may be the worst election strategy decision since Hillary called half of the country, “A basket of deplorables.” Many of whom were black, by the way.

You know they are desperate when they trot out Nate Silver of Five-Thirty-Eight.com to scold us about bad statistical methodology. Remember, Nate was the guy with the 98% chance of Hillary winning {Ed: 538 said 67% as of Nov 2; their forecasts were more accurate than most}. Rasmussen had Trump winning in 2016 {Ed: they predicted Hillary would win, but were among the most accurate forecasts}. Here’s a statistical reality for you, Nate, normal distributions are worthless in abnormal times. And these are the epitome of abnormal times.

Going forward, what will be abnormal is the Democrats winning any major election.

—————————-

Tom Luongo

About the author

Tom Luongo is a former research chemist. He also writes about a wide range of topics. He was editor of the Resolute Wealth Newsletter for Newsmax Media, and now contributes to their Financial Intelligence Report. He publishes the Gold Goats ‘n Guns newsletter (distributed widely, such as at LewRockwell.com), and contributes to Russia Insider, Halsey News, and Seeking Alpha — plus publishing podcasts on YouTube.

An advanced student of Traditional Tae Kwan Do and an adherent to Austrian economics, he applies those lessons to geopolitics, gold and central bank policy.

He lives on his hobby farm in North Florida with his wife, daughter, 4 dogs, 5 goats, 12 ducks and a cat. See his LinkedIn profile, his Twitter feed, and his website.

For More Information

See these articles from the Black Agenda Report, similar views from the Left to those in this post.

See the polls about the November elections: the House and the Senate.

  1. Congress did a great thing 50 years ago, but rot from that day has spread and taken root.
  2. Donald Trump leads us back to the future, to the dark days of US history.
  3. Racism is the dark side of populism. Will it divide and defeat us?
  4. Hard data from Harvard about police violence & race.
  5. Trump and the 1% lead America back to its past, to its dark roots.
  6. Warning: the income gap between races is widening in America.
  7. On Martin Luther King Jr. Day, let the GOP remember its great betrayal.
  8. America’s unspeakable problem: African-American’s crime rates.
Crossing the Chasm - Marketing and Selling Disruptive Products to Mainstream Customers
Available at Amazon.

The book about this marketing insight

Crossing the Chasm:
Marketing and Selling High-Tech Products
to Mainstream Customers

by Geoffrey A. Moore.

From the publisher …

“The bible for bringing cutting-edge products to larger markets—now revised and updated with new insights into the realities of high-tech marketing.”

“In Crossing the Chasm, Geoffrey A. Moore shows that in the Technology Adoption Life Cycle — which begins with innovators and moves to early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards – there is a vast chasm between the early adopters and the early majority. While early adopters are willing to sacrifice for the advantage of being first, the early majority waits until they know that the technology actually offers improvements in productivity. The challenge for innovators and marketers is to narrow this chasm and ultimately accelerate adoption across every segment.

“This third edition brings Moore’s classic work up to date with dozens of new examples of successes and failures, new strategies for marketing in the digital world, and Moore’s most current insights and findings. He also includes two new appendices, the first connecting the ideas in Crossing the Chasm to work subsequently published in his Inside the Tornado, and the second presenting his recent groundbreaking work for technology adoption models for high-tech consumer markets.”

Source: https://fabiusmaximus.com/2018/08/21/trump-makes-the-fault-lines-move-reshaping-us-politics/

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